This was supposed to be a first look, but actually some new changes just came out today so it’s technically a second look. Oh well! Trinkets & set bonuses still haven’t been implemented for crane yet so we’ll just assume they’ll come in later, and skip them for now
Here are the notes that affect PoM DPS:
- Blackout Kick now deals 5% less damage.
- Rising Sun Kick (Windwalker, Mistweaver) now deals 5% less damage.
- Tiger Palm now deals 5% less damage.
- Tiger Strikes no longer triggers from multistrikes, but now provides a 40% increase to Multistrike chance while active.
The original notes had TP/BoK at -30 with no RSK nerf, which actually would have been nicer for us, but overall, the impact of those is relatively minor, within the scope of RNG margin of error for most fights. On my Gruul kill this week, I had 46.44% RSK damage, 4.11% BoK damage, and 2.49% TP damage. Sum that up to get 53.04, multiply by .05, and overall you’re doing 2.54% less damage after the patch. Not what you want, but not something to be really concerned about.
The Tiger Strikes change is less straightforward. You’ll have less Tiger Strikes uptime, and it’ll no longer scale positively with itself through Multistrike, but the buff is 40% instead of 25% so it should even out somewhat.
Tiger Strikes as-is is somewhat difficult to theorycraft. You have to deal with the fact thata new procs refresh the buff, rather than adding extra duration on to the end (so, if you get a first proc at t=0, another proc at t=4, and no more procs, you’ll have the buff from t=0 to t=12), and doesn’t stack. It also has the complication, currently, that when Tiger Strikes is up, giving you additional multistrike, you have a higher chance to get new procs, because it can proc off of multistrikes. I built a sim to try to estimate expected Tiger Strikes uptime, but it uses absolutely perfect conditions so always will have a higher number than you’ll get in practice, without godly RNG.
Anyway, my sim, with the current formula, and my current unbuffed stats of 1007 haste and 2082 multistrike, with the 1.6 speed Kromog sword, estimates a 69.7% Tiger Strikes uptime, for an effective added multistrike through Tiger Strikes of 17.425%. To match this with the new formula, you’d need 43.5625% uptime. In fact, The modified sim with no multistrikes patch gives an estimated 46.08% uptime, so it should be a slight buff in effective multistrike through Tiger Strikes. This gives effective added multistrike of 18.432, or about 1.% additional multistrike overall. I had about 66% overall multistrike on Gruul, so this would bump it up to 67%, so a tiny 0.6% overall damage increase.
Of course, all that is without factoring in over-capping on multistrike. Unlike
Critical Strike, or most classes’ mastery, multistrike has a hard cap at 100%. 2082 multistrike gives you 36.54% raid-buffed multistrike, with non-multistrike food (which is probably advisable, at least with my current stats). A Tiger Strikes proc pushes that up to 76.54%, and then each stack of the Frostwolf weapon enchant proc (up to 2) gives 7.58%, for a max of 91.69%. This still keeps you safe, until you add in trinket procs. The Blackhand Trinket gives a massive amount of multistrike – up to 3840 at the end of a proc for HWF. That’s 58%!!! which obviously puts you way over the cap, with current or post-patch Tiger Strikes. With approximate 40-45% Tiger Strikes uptime, 30% or so weapon enchant uptime (5% or so 2stack), and roughly 20% trinket uptime, the chances of all 3 being up at the same time are low, but it is something to consider when comparing the Blackhand trinket to Oregorger or Darmac.
TL;DR: ~2.5% nerf in overall damage due to TP/RSK/BoK nerfs, 0.6% buff thanks to Tiger Strikes change, and the patch will be hardly noticable thanks to the combination of the two.
edit: I am not a programmer but I set up a github so people should be able to look over my gross Tiger Strikes python sim. Take a look and tell me if you see anything terribly wrong! https://github.com/jordantoine/Tiger-Strikes/blob/master/sim.py
edit2: Geodew correctly points out that crit caps at 100% as well. Of course, you can’t crit on more attacks than you make. I was thinking of crit damage when I put that part in, which is clearly not what crit does.